Another enjoyable week, albeit with some stinky games. So far, the defences have been dominating, and a few surprises have popped up. Today, I want to recap the week 3 games, and give a preview of Thursday’s game for this week.
Week 3 Recaps with predictions:
Dolphins v Bills (wrong!)
A super-hot day in Miami saw a dominant performance by the Bills offence go to waste as they just could not finish. In particular, you saw some poor clock management by Josh Allen towards the end of each half, which led to the viral Ken Dorsey flip-out. We also had the butt-punt, some dodgy concussion management with Tua, and the Fins squeaking out a win over Buffalo to be the only 3 – 0 team in the AFC. The biggest surprise here was the Miami defence, who overcame a huge time-of-possession imbalance to hold the Bills to 19 points.
Commanders v Eagles (correct)
The Eagles continued their dominance over the NFC with Jalen Hurts putting himself into legitimate conversation about the MVP. Devonta Smith had his breakout game, showing his incredible ability to win contested catches despite his diminutive frame. How do you stop this Eagles offence, with Hurts’ running ability, Miles Sanders finding his form, and the Goedert, AJ Brown and Devonta Smith combination making double teams impossible. Not to mention a dominating offensive line, and the Birds look like the favourites in the NFC at the moment.
Jets v Bengals (correct)
The woeful Jets’ D was just what Joe Burrow and the offence needed to look better, but still not great. The running game needs to improve for Burrow to be able to open it up to Chase down the field, but he only took sacks, which is huge. Cincy’s defensive unit has quietly played excellent, even in their losses. If Mixon can turn his touches into more yardage and touchdowns, I can see the Bengals going on a run. If they can take one from the next two (Fins, Ravens), the Bengals will face a softer part of their schedule where they can look to challenge Baltimore in the North.
Pats v Ravens (correct)
Lamar is balling out right now. His ability to hold defences and force them to account for his running ability has allowed him to find his receivers in the soft spots in coverage. The defence smashed the Pats, and it looks like Mac Jones may be out long-term. Belichick’s boys look lost, and the defence could not matchup with the speed on the Ravens team. Unfortunately for New England, looking at the AFC East, they will be outmatched in terms of speed all season.
Titans v Raiders (correct)
The Titans got Henry involved early in the passing game, and then rode him to a close victory over Las Vegas, where the seeds of discontent are blooming. Josh McDaniels’ previous coaching stint saw him unable to manage strong personalities, and it seems that Davante Adams’ patience is already thinning. David Carr has seemingly taken a step back, and both Darren Waller and Adams have disappeared in the passing game. The Raiders need a win over a similarly disappointing Broncos team or things will get ugly quickly in Las Vegas.
Bucs v Packers (correct)
The tale of two old QBs leading flawed offences against great defences and struggling. Anyone watching the games would find it hard to fault the two future Hall of Famers, who have had cobbled together offensive lines, a mish-mash of receivers and some bad luck. The Pack just got over Brady and the Bucs based on solid, patient running and short passing, and a missed 2 point convert with some controversy. The good news for both teams is that they play in the wide-open NFC, and their defences are playing great.
Panthers v Saints (wrong!)
Yikes. A few stinkers this week, with this game highlighting the importance of quarterback play. Both defences played OK, with the Saints doing everything they could to win, and the Panthers D actually winning the game with their return touchdown the difference. Jameis is obviously not healthy, and didn’t have enough in the tank to make the comeback. McCaffrey look alright, but Mayfield is playing terribly. His happy feet, poor reads and tendency to force throws is leading the Panthers to bad offensive performances. The Saints have the Vikes in London, and will need a bounce back performance from Jameis if they want to take this out.
Vikings v Lions (correct)
The darlings of Hard Knocks, it was hard to watch the Vikings comeback on the Lions and sneak off with the win. The Lions offence is arguably one of the most enjoyable to watch in the league, with exciting players all over the field and a nasty O Line. Unfortunately for the Lions, injuries hit them hard this week, and their solid start to the game was undone when Kirk Cousins was able to get them the late win. If the Lions can overcome their injuries, they will win a few more games this year, but I think as long as Goff is their starter, they will be limited. And the Defence is still just bad.
Colts v Chiefs (wrong!)
Some bad mistakes led the Chiefs to be their worst enemies, with special teams miscues and some bad penalties biting them. The Colts still look pretty terrible, and poor Matt Ryan is getting blasted every week. I’m not sure what is wrong with the O Line in Indy, and why J Taylor is struggling so much, but if they can’t figure things out quickly and put together more consistent performances, the Jags and Titans will surpass them in the South. They will be happy to get out with an upset victory, and I reckon the Chiefs will bounce back and put a hurting on the Bucs at home in primetime.
Bears v Texas (correct)
Sorry Camilla, but your Texans just have not got the talent yet to win these close games. They played alright, but this was two bad teams playing bad football. The difference between these two teams was the turnover late my Davis Mills. He is a game manager type, and when the Texans need him to make a play late, he just does not have the experience or physical talents to make it happen. Lovie Smith keeps spinning the positive, but honestly, against Justin Fields, who looks lost, the coach must be disappointed that they didn’t win this one.
Chargers v Jags (wrong!)
Maybe the biggest surprise of the week, the Jags are starting to look legitimate. This really shows the supreme importance of coaching, as the infusion of Doug Pederson and his staff is night-and-day compared to the circus that is was the Urban Meyer experience. Trevor Lawrence is not making splash plays but is doing everything right. On the other-hand, the Chargers offence is a bit of a mystery. Obviously, Herbert is not right, but where is Ekeler and the running game? Their offensive line is now limited, with 2nd year sensation tackle Slater out for the season, so there will need to be some adjustments on how they pick up points. I think the defence is still very good, but without Joey Bosa, will need to scheme up new ways to generate pressure.
Seahawks v Falcons (correct)
The Falcons and Seahawks have very bad defences, allowing both offences to move the ball down the field with impunity. The difference here was penalties for Seattle and more talent on the Falcons offence. I still enjoy watching Mariota lead the Arthur Smith offence, but they are not built to come from behind, and their defence basically guarantees this will be the case for most of the game. With the Bucs, Saints and Panthers looking vulnerable, stacking up wins where they could be a big deal for the Falcons late in the season.
Niners v Broncos (wrong!)
I am going to be honest, I stopped watching this game after the first quarter. Both offences looked totally lost facing really solid defences. The problem was not that it was a defensive struggle, which I appreciate. The problem was just how bad the offences were. I though Jimmy G may have been an improvement for the 49ers offence, bringing some veteran experience and a familiarity with Shanahan’s playbook. He looks rough. 1-10 on 3rd down, 7 penalties and Jimmy pulling the Orlovsky and running out the back of the endzone for the difference making safety were the evidence that the Niners may be in for a long year. The Broncos were not any better, managing only three field goals. They have scored three touchdowns in 3 games. Luckily, their defence is elite, with only three touchdowns allowed as well.
Rams v Cards (correct)
Neither teams’ offences were any good, and while the Rams got the win, there are some serious concerns that the running game is struggling. McVay’s scheme needs the solid foundation of the zone running game to unlock the vertical passing game. The Cards’ defence is vulnerable, and Kyler cannot do anything about that. He is doing all he can, but there just isn’t any consistency behind their attack.
Giants v Cowboys (correct)
The Cowboys D is dynamic, and are keeping them in the NFC race with their franchise QB out. All things considered, Cooper Rush is playing about as well as expected, and the offence is competent. The Giants could not handle the pass rush from the Boys, and while Micah Parsons’ was held off the stat sheet, his presence could not be denied and fellow sack-master Demarcus Lawrence feasted on the Giants o-line all night with 3 sacks. Saquon is still the key to the offence, and I don’t know why he didn’t get more of the ball on the ground.
Browns v Steelers (wrong!)
This was a fun game, and I have been very impressed with how the Browns have put Jacoby Brissett into successful situations and leaning on the great running game behind Chubb and Hunt and a mauling offensive line. Conversely, the Steelers lack of consistent line play let them down when they found it hard to stop the run and get Najee Harris any open lanes. Mitch Trubisky is limited, and missed some bad throws, though George Pickens flashed with a catch-of-the-year candidate early in the season. The Steelers have a brutal schedule coming up, and need to improve offensively if they have any chance in staying in the divisional race.
Now, my thoughts on the Thursday night game between the Bengals and Dolphins.
The Dolphins are the surprise of the league, being the only 3-0 team in the AFC, and upsetting the Bills last week. Tua is getting a lot of credit for the play of the offence, but his injuries may get the better of him. His game depends on quick reads and decisive choices, but if his back limits his release, the Bengals could cause headaches for the Fins. Burrow will face another solid pass rush, and ageless wonder Melvin Ingram and co are no joke. Another thing to consider is the weather, as Hurricane Ian is rocking the Florida coast right now. It remains to be seen which team benefits, if any. I can see Joe Mixon having a big day, depending on his ability to create yardage in both the running and short passing game. Don’t sleep on the Cincy D, who will pressure Tua and lock up the speedy Hill/Waddle combo to a close road victory.
Cincinnati 28 over Miami 20
Stay tuned for my Week 4 Sunday/Monday preview blog, and keep listening to our Podcast where Cam and I discuss her growing knowledge in the greatest game in the world.
Comments